Market Penetration of Alternative Powertrain Concepts in Heavy Commercial Vehicles: A System Dynamics Approach

Diffusion of alternative powertrain concepts in heavy commercial vehicles will start in the upcoming years after electrification and natural gas engines have already been introduced for passenger cars. Numerous quantitative forecasting and technology diffusion models exist for passenger cars but cannot be transferred unchanged to heavy commercial vehicles. A system dynamics model for the diffusion of alternative powertrain concepts in heavy commercial vehicles is developed by adaptation of existing simulation models for passenger cars. The structural validity is assured by changing the structure and parameterization based on stakeholder interviews, secondary studies, and theoretical foundations. The results reveal the significance of a satisfying refueling infrastructure for alternative fuel trucks and the transitional market potential of hybrid electric trucks. The discussion of the system dynamics model emphasizes the analysis of customer demand as an essential field for future research of alternative powertrain diffusion in heavy commercial vehicles.